... in future

Stock trades, art and algorithms

26 Sep 2010 | 686 words | algorithms art economy future modernity technology

If you ask me one of the more fascinating things going on out there right now is high-frequency trading. High-frequency trading (HFT) occurs when traders program computers to buy and sell stocks (or other financial products) in quick succession under certain, pre-defined circumstances. (a good starting point to learn more about HFT is this planet money episode or this ai500 article by Joe Flood).

Apparently High Frequency trading enables successful trading firms to skim of enormous surplus off these transactions (up to 1 million USD per day according to the planet money episode mentioned above). Not surprisingly this behavior can also act as a destabilizing factor wrecking havoc on stock markets. It has been one of the contributing factor’s to the ‘flash crash‘ which saw the Dow-Jones index plunge nearly 1,000 points in seconds on the 6th of may 2010.

If you believe wikipedia (which of course you should not) High Frequency trading is currently responsible for 70% of the equity trading volume in the US. Needless to say the practice is generating a fair share of controversy among economists.

At the core of this controversy are the merits of HFT: does is make macro-economic sense (because it ensures the liquidity of markets and limits market volatility) or is it detrimental to the economy at large (because it extracts value from markets based on no other fact than that prices tend to move)?

While this debate is going on it appears that there are even stranger things occurring in the field of high frequency trading: in August the Atlantic reported on research undertaken by a market data firm called Nanex that unearthed trading patterns that do not seem to make sense even by the high obfuscation standards of HFT. The article in the Atlantic claims that these strange patterns are the result of ‘mysterious and possibly nefarious trading algorithms’ whose ways and reasons of operation are known to no-one:

Unknown entities for unknown reasons are sending thousands of orders a second through the electronic stock exchanges with no intent to actually trade. Often, the buy or sell prices that they are offering are so far from the market price that there’s no way they’d ever be part of a trade. The bots sketch out odd patterns with their orders, leaving patterns in the data that are largely invisible to market participants.

When you visualize this you get something like this (graphs by Nanex):

According to the Atlantic it is unclear what exactly causes these patterns to emerge. The Nanex researchers have come to the conclusion that these algorithms are most likely an attempt by trading firms to introduce noise into the marketplace in order to realize a competitive advantage:

Other firms have to deal with that noise, but the originating entity can easily filter it out because they know what they did. Perhaps that gives them an advantage of some milliseconds. In the highly competitive and fast HFT world, where even one’s physical proximity to a stock exchange matters, market players could be looking for any advantage.

On the other hand there are much more poetic explanations for the emergence of these patterns, that abandon the idea that these patters serve a purpose all-together:

On the quantitative trading forum, Nuclear Phynance, the consensus on the patterns seemed to be that they simply just emerged. They were the result of “a dynamical system that can enter oscillatory/unstable modes of behaviour,” as one member put it. If so, what you see here really is just the afterscent of robot traders gliding through the green-on-black darkness of the financial system on their way from one real trade to another.

Whatever they are, these patterns are also outright beautiful. The above visualizations remind me on the work of german artist Jorinde Voigt, who’s stunning drawings (pdf) often rely on algorithms as a source:

Konstellation Algorithmus Adlerflug 100 Adler, Strom, Himmelsrichtung, Windrichtung, Windstärke -Jorinde Voigt Berlin, Oktober 2007

p.s:Sara says that these stealth trading bots remind her of the tiger in Jonathan Lethem’sChronic City instead. p.p.s: Also just finished reading ‘the Fires‘ by the aforementioned Joe Flood. brilliant book, highly reccomended.

I have changed my mind...

About the Noord Zuid Lijn: i really think that instead of finishing of the line and having subway trains running somewhen past 2015 they should just finish the tunnel and then turn it into a super deluxe underground bicycle express-path. The tunnel would dramatically cut down the time needed to get to the center, prevent you from rain and would probably be used by more locals on a daily basis than a subway ever will. The thing needs to have lots of smooth on- and off-ramps that connect it to the cross streets and of course tourists need to be prevented from using it.

North south line tunnel under the sixhaven by Mauritsvink

Computer Science is the Science of the Future [and more pics from Cuba]

07 Dec 2008 | 333 words | future cuba photos technology education

So i finally finished uploading my pictures from cuba to flickr [see here and here]. among them is one more series that deserves special attention. it consists of a number of photos of an abandonened boarding school building that we found along the road from Bayamo to Las Tunas in eastern Cuba. The soviet-style prefabricated builing stands at a stark contrast with the surrounding countryside. When we first stopped there we had no idea what the building was. While exploring the building it became clear that it used to house a boarding school (there is a former boarding school head’s office next to the former communist party of cuba’s office) on the first floor of one of the wings.

I would guess that the building stands empty for at least 5 years or so. Based on this it is in remarkably good condition: Everything that can be reused (such as the window panes or the threads of the second staircase) has been taken away, but for the rest the building is remarkable clean and the walls are still covered with propaganda slogans promising support for Fidel, Raúl & the Revolution.

Most interesting were a number of rooms that seem to have been used as computer science labs. There are two rooms in the vast building that have inscriptions in a programming language (basic?) painted on the walls: In one – otherwise empty – room the inscription on the wall reads:

INPUT [“mensaje”] , PRINT [] OPEN “dispositivo:nombre” FOR AS [see picture here]

and in another room the inscriptions on the wall read:

PRINT [] DIM , INPUT [“mensaje”] , IF-THEN-ELSE IF THEN [else ] [see picture here]

Another wall in the same room also has ‘La Computacion es la ciencia del futuro’ (‘Computer science is the science of the future’) written on on it. What has obviously been intended as a motivational slogan for the pupils now stands in an almost absurd contrast with the surroundings. Guess the future happens elsewhere these days…

Steal this Film II revisited

05 Jan 2008 | 475 words | future movies file sharing copyright piracy media

So Felix (make sure to check out that splash page!) has posted an really good review of Steal This Film II to the nettime mailing list. If you still need a reason/excuse to download and watch STFII i suggest reading his review:

This experience reinforces the main point of the film: file-sharing – a technologically super-charged, deep cultural practice – is beyond the point where it can be stopped. The old media industry has lost control over the distribution of content, radically reducing the power of the current gate keepers to determine who can access the archives, who can produce new works, and who can reach an audience with those works.

The film’s premise is that file-sharing is transforming the basic mechanism of how culture and information is distributed with consequences as profound as the transformation brought about by the printing press. Now, for anyone who remembers the late 1990s, this introduces a certain deja-vu, since this argument was pretty much what fueled the dot.com boom back then. But here, it is delivered with a twist. It’s not the happy venture-capital infused entrepreneurs who turn the wheels of change, but the pirates who expand the scope of the possible for the masses, and the teenagers who have already claimed this new space as their natural cultural environment. This is not a top-down revolution.

Meanwhile Jamie has written up some thoughts about the amount of donations The League of Noble Peers is receiving as a result of their call for support. Seems like suggesting to donate a higher amount of money ($15 as opposed to 1$ as they did for when they released the original Steal This Film in 2006) works rather well. In his blog post Jamie is combining these first experiences with research about the spread of Sexually Transmitted Diseases (a gonorrhea epidemic to be precise) to come up with the expectation that it is perfectly possible to produce profitable documentaries based on voluntary donations:

What is also necessary is a spreading of the “generosity virus”, not just for STEAL THIS FILM (although boy, could we use it!) but for all independent creators who’ve dispensed with the restrictive, punitive, retrograde commodity model and chosen to work with a new, more far-sighted paradigm. In these first days of distributing STF II, we have learned that by setting aside the artificial barriers of DVDs, cinema tickets and pay-per-download, the way is cleared to a new world of voluntary, supportive donations. The sooner we all stop moaning about how “no one is going to make any money” after P2P, we can get on with encouraging each other to look after our cultural environments. No one is saying we’re there yet, but like the man said, we’re beginning to see the light.

Read the rest of ‘The Future Doesn’t Care About Your Bank Balance, But the 1/1000 Do!

Steal this Film - Part 2

The second installment of Steal This Film has just been released. you can download it in 4 different resolutions) here and Torrentfreak has an interview with Jamie. By now i have seen it it numerous times (in different stages of production) and i will probably watch it again just for the sake of it (i am downloading the HD version right now).

Now it does not really matter if i watch it again or not but this movie is essential viewing for all those out there who still believe that file-sharing, and distributed communication and growing up in an age without scarcity (when it comes to media) does not constitute a fundamental break when it comes to cultural (re-) production:

These are strange times indeed. While they continue to command so much attention in the mainstream media, the ‘battles’ between old and new modes of distribution, between the pirate and the institution of copyright, seem to many of us already lost and won. We know who the victors are. Why then say any more?

Because waves of repression continue to come: lawsuits are still levied against innocent people; arrests are still made on flimsy pretexts, in order to terrify and confuse; harsh laws are still enacted against filesharing, taking their place in the gradual erosion of our privacy and the bolstering of the surveillance state. All of this is intended to destroy or delay inexorable changes in what it means to create and exchange our creations. If STEAL THIS FILM II proves at all useful in bringing new people into the leagues of those now prepared to think ‘after intellectual property’, think creatively about the future of distribution, production and creativity, we have achieved our main goal. [from the STFII website]

Oh, and if you have not yet seen Steal this Film I yet you can download it here

Email == artillery

13 Aug 2007 | 576 words | future technology imagination germany

Spend two days at my parents place in east Germany this weekend and yesterday my dad suddenly came up and insisted on reading us a short excerpt from the complete works of Heinrich von Kleist. It is a short note that he wrote in october 1810 as editor of the ‘Berliner Abendblättern’, where it was published under the title ‘Useful Inventions: Concept for a bomb mail system’:

It’s a bit of a far-fetched concept that suggests to address one of the main shortcomings of the then-just-launched telegraph system which, in his words, only allowed for the transmission of ‘short, laconic messages but did not work for sending ‘letters, notes, attachments’. In other words, Kleist wanted to have email instead of SMS and suggested to implement it using ‘mortars and howitzers‘ that would fire shells filled with letters from one station to another, where the shells would be opend, and letters would then either be delivered or, if they where addressed for another station put into a new shell and fired to the next station.

Could not find this particular text in english so here it comes in german (with a rather complicated grammar):

Nützliche Erfindungen: Entwurf einer Bombenpost

Man hat in diesen Tagen, des Verkehrs innerhalb der Grenzen der vier Weltteile, einen elektrischen Telegraphen erfunden; einen Telegraphen, der mit der Schnelligkeit des Gedankens, ich will sagen, in kürzerer Zeit, als irgendein chronometrisches Instrument angeben kann, vermittelst des Elektrophors und des Metalldrahts Nachrichten mitteilt; dergestalt, dass wenn jemand, falls nur sonst die Vorrichtung dazu getroffen wäre, einen guten Freund, den er unter den Antipoden hätte, fragen wollte: ‘wie geht’s dir?’ derselbe, ehe man noch eine Hand umkehrt ohngefähr so als ob er in einem und dem selben Zimmer stünde, antworten könnte: ‘recht gut’. Sofern wir dem Erfinder dieser Post die, auf recht eigentliche Weise, auf Flügeln des Blitzes reitet, die Krone des Verdienstes zugestehen, so hat doch auch diese Fernschreibekunst noch die Unvollkommenheit, dass sie nur, dem Interesse des Kaufmanns wenig erspriesslich, zur Versendung ganz kurzer und lakonischer Nachrichten, nicht aber zur übermachung von Briefen, Berichten, Beilagen und Paketen taugt. Demnach schlagen wir, um auch diese Lücke zu erfüllen, zur Beschleunigung und Vervielfachung der Handeslkommunikationen, wenigstens in den Grenzen der kultivierten Welt, eine Wurf- oder Bombenpost vor; ein Institut, dass sich auf zweckmäßig, innerhalb des Raumes einer Schussweite angelegten Artilleriestationen aus Mörsern oder Haubitzen, hohle, statt des Pulvers mit Briefen angefüllte kugeln, die mann, ohne alle Schwierigkeit mit den Augen verfolgen und wo sie hinfallen, falls es ein Morastgrund ist, wieder auffinden kann, zuwürfe; dergestalt, dass die Kugel, auf jeder Station zuvorderst eröffnet, die respektiven Briefe für jeden Ort herausgenommen, die neuen hineingelegt, dass ganze wieder verschlossen, in einen neuen Mörser geladen und zur nächsten Station weiterspediert werden könnte. den Prospektus des ganzen und die Beschreibung und Auseinandersetzung der Anlagen und Kosten behalten wir einer umständlicheren und weitläufigeren Abhandlung bevor. da man, auf diese weise, wie eine kurze mathematische Berechnung lehrt binnen Zeit eines halben Tages, gegen geringe kosten von Berlin nach Stettin oder Breslau würde schreiben oder respondieren können und mithin, verglichen mit unseren reitenden Posten ein zehnfacher Zeitgewinn entsteht, oder es ebensoviel ist als ob ein Zauberstab, diese Orte der Stadt Berlin zehnmal nähergerückt hätte: so glauben wir für das Bürgerliche sowohl als Handeltreibende Publikum eine Erfindung von dem größesten und entscheidendsten Gewicht, geschickt den Verkehr auf den höchsten Gipfel der Vollkommenheit zu treiben, an den Tag gelegt zu haben.

Berlin den 10ten Oktober 1810

Lille 3000

Absolutely no idea why it is called lille 3000 and not some other arbitrary number, but apparently the local government decided that 3000 sounds mighty futuristic (and 2006 would be so last year in three months anyway) and here we go… I am also not sure if lille 3000 is the same as the ‘Bombaysers de Lille’ (the sexual pun is apparently intended) exhibition that was opened with much French pompousness this weekend. Like the city of lille the exhibition is definitely worth a visit: Ashok has a great piece (called GPS) installed on the Place du Theatre and the ‘Maximum City’ exposition (after Suketu Mehta’s must-read book with the same title) is pretty impressive (although it contains too many pictures of black and yellow taxis, but then it is about Bombay so i guess you can’t avoid them..) and there is other gems hidden across the city (try to find the tourism office, without getting misdirected by the signage).

My favorite piece is the photo series ‘Monrachs of the East End’ by Gavin Fernandez, which is part of the ‘rich mix‘ group exhibition in the Maison de Follies de Wazemmes. I want some of of those, badly!

But back to the lille 3000 business: the whole exhibition (which in a sense is the continuation of the the cultural capital activities of 2004 by other means but with the same esthetic and conceptual drive) seems to be part of an aggressive attempt to re-position Lille as a city of the future (the past can be seen in the extensive ruins of its former industrial glory around the northern suburb Tourcoing on the border with Belgium – a small scale version of Bombay’s mill lands that occupy much of central parts of the city).

Exhibitions and impressive architecture aside the fact, that lille is indeed about the future is most evident when one looks at the local population: This weekend it looked like two thirds of the people in the streets are teenagers, which makes me wonder what they do to the old people (they probably ship them to the Belgian coast, but that is something for the next post). Maybe this abundance of kids is the result of the city actively collecting kids that can be deposited at designated locations:

Even more futuristic are the public spaces (and i am not speaking of that but ugly Euralille complex, which shows once more that Mr Koollhaas should stop actually realizing buildings and continue to publish books instead) but the public parks. It is well-known that the french are nazis when it come to their parks: (‘no walking on the grass’ and closing them at 5 in the afternoon for no good reason other than to piss of park-goers) but encircling a park by 4 meter high, red, state-of-the-art prison fence (complete with diagonal supporting poles, so that the fence cant be pushed down), is quite an extreme measure, to keep the kids from lying in the grass and smoking a joint after 8 pm if you ask me (but then fences are fashionably european these days, so it might just be an esthetic statement):

Comes with built in bench! (tres chique!)

São Paulo 2001

25 Oct 2005 | 356 words | São Paulo urbanism religion future

Yesterday i seriously thought i would not like São Paulo. It seemed empty for a city with 16 million-or-so inhabitants. And the people who where on the streets where either selling incense, crystals and other hippie-shit (on the Praça Republica next to my hotel) or the seemed to be a bit too fond of tattoos and body manipulations for my taste (all the kids i ran into on the subway on their way to some kind of tattoo convention). But mostly they were simply absent.

The lack of people on the streets was apparently also due to the fact that it was sunday AND referendum-day and brazilians seem to take both their sundays and there referendums rather serious. As far as the latter are concerned it even seems that the police is not allowed to arrest anyone 3 days prior to any election/referendum as this would mean that the arrested cannot vote. apparently this law is a relic from a past when politicians would get supporters of their opponents arrested so they could not vote. As far as i understand this it is not that crimes in this period go unpunished but rather the arrests will be delayed.

Anyway i have changed my mind about the city. This place is absolutely mind boggling. It is pretty much what i would have imagined a 21st century megalopolis when i was a kid. The city center is an anarchic chaos of high rise buildings which seen as a whole has a heterogeneous beauty that surpasses the clinic beauty of places like Amsterdam by orders of magnitude. Combine this with science fiction attributes like heli-pads on top of lots of buildings (that people actually seem to use for helicopter travel within the city), lots of satellite dishes and other aerials, private properties surrounded by electric fences and churches that have their own parking garages underneath them (pay by credit card!) and i am sold to São Paulo.

Tonight on Avenida Paulista there was a open air screening of Kubrick’s ‘2001: A Space Odyssey‘. This is probably the most appropriate places to screen this movie i have seen so far.

My workplace in 2015 (in dutch)

12 Jun 2005 | 666 words | future waag work airtravel

Last week we had a research and development workshop at Waag Society about 20 of us had to engage in 2 days socratic talking. I still do not really know what exactly this was suposed to accomplish but there are two additional days to come, so lets see.

For the first day of the workshop we were asked to write a short account of a day at the Waag in 2015. below you find my somewhat negative vision (all the other visions i have read were positive and mostly focussed on technologically augmented tele-working scenarios):

In mei heeft is de laatste software developer ontslagen. Sindsdien werken er nog 15 mensen in de naam van de Waag. Van de 15 zijn 12 project coördinatoren. De meeste van hun werken niet alleen voor de waag maar ook voor andere instellingen. Sinds 2012 is de Waag langzaam omgevormd naar een instelling die steeds minder mensen in dienst had. Dit is het directe gevolg van het afbouw van overheidssubsidie.

Nu bestaat de waag uit twee lagen. De eerste laag is de programma raad. de mensen in de programmaraad beoordelen projectvoorstellen die door de projectcoordinatoren (de tweede laag) ingebracht worden. projectvoorstellen die aan de missie van de Waag (jaarlijks bijgesteld door de programmaraad) voldoen worden door projectcoordinatoren zelfstandig uitgevoerd. In ruil voor een commissie voor de programmaraad mogen projectcoordinatoren de naam van de Waag bij het werven van fondsen, benaderen van partners en aquireren van projecten gebruiken. Zij zijn echter niet in dienst van de waag, moeten hun inkomsten uit de projecten realiseren en moeten jaarlijks opnieuw door de programmaraad ‘goedgekeurd’ worden.

Projectccordinatoren stellen zelf hun projectteams samen. Tot voor kort konden ze hiervoor nog op een pool van software ontwikkelaars, vormgevers, productie medewerkers beroep doen. Dit system is in de laatste jaren te duur en te inflexiebel gebleken. Nu worden worden voor projecten software ontwikkelaars uit india en iran en vormgevers uit libanon, israel en egyptie engageert met wie op afstand samen gewerkt wordt. Productie medewerkers worden op freelance basis bij producten betrokken en expertise op de gebieden van communicatie, interactie of educatie worden in de regel door projectpartners aangeleverd. Projecten worden erop beoordeelt hoeveel media aandacht zij genereren. Naast het aansturen van projectteams is de belangrijkste taak van Projectcoordinatoren het plaatsen van projectinformatie op de relevante blogs en de toongevende videosyndicatie platformen

Naast 10 projectcoordinatoren die applicaties en oplossingen produceren zijn er twee die maatschappelijke onderwerpen die uit de informatie revolutie zijn voortgekomen onder de aandacht brengen. hun werk bestaat voornamelijk uit het verzamelen van bijdragen van experts op een bepaalt terrein. deze bijdragen worden dan voor in verschillende formaten (audiocursussen, videofeatures, lespakketten) verzamelt en vervolgens op blogs, gespecialieserde knowledge sharing en videosyndicatie platformen geplaatst. in veel gevallen wordt ook in opdracht van overheidsinstellingen, universiteiten, musea en onderwijsinstellingen gewerkt die zo goedkoep een deel van hun programmas kunnen vullen of externe expertise inwinnen. In de laatste zijn er ook weer een aantal conferenties gehouden. Sinds 2007 toen duidelijk was geworden dat de fossile energie energiebronnen van de aarde sneller dan verwacht uitgeput zouden zijn, zijn er bijna geen conferenties meer gehouden omdat het invliegen van sprekers niet meer betaalbaar bleek. in de laatste jaren is er in de underground echter echter een cultuur van lokale conferenties over maatschappelijk relevante onderwerpen ontstaan. Deze lokale conferenties hebben een steeds grotere impact op de sociale structuur van de samenleving gekregen en Waag society is recentelijk begonnen om gesteund op de netwerken van zijn internationale partners (vaak zijn dat jonge softwareontwikklaars en designers die bij andere projecten betrokken zijn) contacten tussen locale initiatieven in andere regios te bemiddelen. Uit deze genetwerkte conferenties komen in de laatste tijd vaker nieuwe project ideen naar voren maar deze worden vaak buiten het waag framework gerealiseerd omdat het moeilijk is gebleken om hiervoor financiële steun bij lokale geldschieters te verkrijgen.

Voor de meeste projectcordinatoren zijn deze zijprojecten echter een van de belangrijkste reden om verder voor de Waag te werken omdat dit toegang tot deze netwerken betekend.

meanwhile... is the personal weblog of Paul Keller. I am currently policy director at Open Future and President of the COMMUNIA Association for the Public Domain. This weblog is largely inactive but contains an archive of posts (mixing both work and personal) going back to 2005.

I also maintain a collection of cards from African mediums (which is the reason for the domain name), a collection of photos on flickr and a website collecting my professional writings and appearances.

Other things that i have made online: